Monday, April 27, 2009

GBPUSD possible Gartley


Something to watch for. Possible Gartley sell pattern. My bias is still to the down side and I do a have a target of 1.4553 (.886 fib) and 1.4515 (dbl bottom). Neither of these targets would invalidate the Gartely pattern. Alternatively, if the upside penetrates the 1.4565 level I will then watch for new long tragets of 1.4690 and 1.4730.

I'm sure it'll go either way, up or down.....:)

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

GBP patterns in a pattern

Bias here is still to the downside but a short term up trend has proven itself. Can anyone see the smaller patterns inside the bigger pattern. Drawing the supply and demand lines will show the range this has been trading. My orders have all been inside this range but waiting for a break out. Dial down for the entries and targets. Been finding some real good trades here.

In response to, well you know who you are. These lines do not show a Gartley pattern. The C point exceeding the A point invalidates the Gartley pattern. Likewise D cannot exceed X and B cannot exceed X. C however can equal A which first is a double top and D or B can equal X which would be a double or triple bottom. Did ya get that? There are however valid Gartley's in the smaller time frames that a couple of us have been trading. I just like to start with the Daily patterns and find the trend...just my way.

EUR Gartley pattern

I really like this set up. Long term bias is still to the down side. Go to shorter time frames for entries and targets. If short the CD move, might consider booking some profit and lowering the stop, I know I am. I bet it goes up or down.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Psychology of Trading - Daily Affirmation

Hi guys, here is something that was posted in an "Open FX" email that I just read and found very enlightening to me. You may have seen it, read at some point or may have it posted on your wall. If so, I think that's a good thing. If you haven't, well I hope you find this at least somewhat interesting

MASTER TRADER’S DAILY AFFIRMATION

I am a Master Trader.

I develop specific plans of action that meet my trading goals.

I exercise wisdom and patience in trading.

I wait for the right opportunity to present itself.

Every trade meets the required criteria.

I recognize trading opportunities quickly, clearly and with great ease.

I act decisively when executing my positions.

Emotion has no place in my game plan.

I recognize loss as a part of trading.

I adhere to sound money management principals that minimize loss and maximize gain.

I attract wealth and abundance, and this is reflected in my trades.

I trade with peace, confidence, and certainty.

I AM A MASTER TRADER.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Going into next week


Here are four that have my interest going into next week.

The EUR is setting up a nice Gartley and GBP is just so so. EUR Bias is still to the downside. My bias on the GBP is to the downside as well but looks to maybe trying to push up slightly. Notice the higher high.Right now it's trading in an area of support.

NZD cup and handle could break to the upside. Five bars back tested the .382 fib. Bias is still to the upside

GBPJPY still trending to the upside for the short term and approaching a .382 fib level. If you draw your own fib notice how the JPYGBP honored the .236 level before continuing up. Bias still to the upside.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

The Secret to Making Money in Forex

The secret to making money in Forex depends on the management of your trades. A management system should be based on support and resistance, good risk:reward, keeping your losers tight, and allows for your winners to keep going or run. This is really the only way to make money in Forex or any market for that matter. But hay...that's just my opinion ya know.

When I wrote about booking profits and reducing risk on March 20th it was very much about managing your trade and not just managing risk. I really don't know or understand why this subject of managing trades seems to be so very misunderstood or not thought about at all. It's really interesting to me. Every trade I make both in and out of the market has a reason. Nothings arbitrary. There's a reason for it all.

I know exactly how much I can lose and am always thinking in terms of probabilities instead of certainties. I think too many traders enter positions without really knowing how much they can lose and instead are fixated on the profit their going to make. Knowing how much I can afford to lose is more important, in my opinion, than knowing how much I can profit. It is also a very important part of your trade management (the $ management part).

First you gotta learn a method of trading that suits your personality. Because of all the different personalities, I don't believe that any one method of trading is perfect for everyone. So once you've found what it is that works for you...study it, learn it, know it. But also know this, any good trading method will have periods of profits and periods of losses. Get that? Periods of losses!!

A trader must continue studying their trading method and learn to trade through these losing periods. It is usually at this point when the majority of traders will give up on that method complaining that it doesn't work and go searching for the method that has no losers, the holy grail. It is learning to manage these drawdown periods that will have the biggest and most profound positive impact on your trading.

Developing excellent money management skills combined with excellent trade management skills will ultimately be the heart and soul of the successful trader. If there is a holy grail of trading then this is it....excellent money management and excellent trade management skills!

There are many good books out there worth reading on the subject so go get one and learn. And remember the old saying: Never go for broke--You just might get it.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

GBPUSD Gartley Buy Pattern update



To be a valid gartley pattern this will need to not exceed the "A" swing point. For me this is an area of caution. If you look at the 30 or 60 min charts you'll notice a nice cup and handle forming. Could be a continuation to the upside if it breaks the "A". If this happens I like the 1.4965ish $ level. This is a 1.272 fib and weekly pivot level.

Not expecting much action tonight with the NFP in the morning. I'll be closing my positions prior to the announcement.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

GBPUSD Gartley buy pattern

Mexican carwash



Got a few pictures from my brother in Mexico and couldn't help but chuckle at a few. His truck needed a bath so off to the car wash he goes.

After the car wash they went to the market to get groceries for dinner. Just in time to catch the butcher delivering the markets beef order in his climate controlled delivery truck.

A Couple Possibilities



Couple patterns to watch for. These patterns all start with the AB=CD move so we don't have to wait for the move to complete to trade it. The chart with the yellow lines are potential targets for the EURUSD. My long term bias is still to the down side. The chart with the pattern in red is a possible sell pattern for the GBPUSD. Long and short term bias is to the down side with the GBPUSD

Also keeping an eye on the NZDUSD. Has a fairly nice pattern forming if you look at the 60min chart. Check out the Daily chart as well. Looks to be completing a sell pattern. My bias is still to the up side though.

This week has been a lot slower than I like. Not sure really why. Maybe the G20 and the NFP this week. Possibilities