Seafood buffet

So...communication with the outside world and modern amenities are a bit scarce but one thing's for sure.....we eat like kings around here. Shrimp and crab are my favorite along with the Kings. Halibut's pretty good too. Silvers are in by the thousands. Tagging out (6 per person) in less than an hour with 5 guys. If you haven't done it you gotta try fly fishing salt for the silvers...it's a blast.

Hmmm....I wonder what the rich folks are doing.

More pics of the lodge

Internet has been sporadic around here at best. Just the smallest amount of cloud cover seems to really effect the satellite connection. Not good....it's cloudy pretty much every day. So, since the internet connection hasn't been too great there hasn't been much trading for about a month....that sucks. August is usually the slow period for forex traders anyway.

Here's a few pictures of the progress on the lodge

Making progress

Interior walls are up. Started on the 2nd floor decking. Check out the view...not bad, eh.

Needing a pip fix

Some rare good quality internet today so thought i'd get a few trades in.

$/JPY >95.28
target 95.75

GBP/JPY > 157.00
target 157.65 and 158.65

EUR/$ >1.4100
target 1.4160

A few more pics for those who care

Lodge update

Here's a couple recent pics of the lodge. It's coming along. Starting the interior walls tomorrow.

The Sockeye are in

Decided to go fishing today. The Sockeye are in so thought I'd go get dinner. This is Hatchery Creek. A favorite spot to go after the Silvers. The Bear sit at the top of the falls and catch the Salmon as they jump to go up river. Notice the two Sockeye jumping up the falls together...one in the middle the other on the far right.

For those that asked

Here's a few pictures for those that asked.

Made it to Coffman Cove

We saw this bad boy on the side of the road about an hour before we got to Prince Rupert. Absolutely unbelievable breathtaking landscape. Cant wait for the trip back home in the fall.

Once we got through the border the trip was great. Getting through the border sucked big nasty rotten fungus infested toes. Actually that would have been a treat. Stuck there for more than two hours and treated like an escaped convict actually had me questioning myself if I did just break out of prison. I told Doug (my convict escapee partner) to stop at the first liquor store you see. A fifth of Scotch it was....(oh nooo...we would never think of drinking and driving). Man let me tell you....If you're not a drinker when you get to the border, you cant wait to become one when you leave.

Anyway, we got to Prince George the first night about 3:00am. I was driving, Doug was sleeping. Hmmm...who's the bone head here. Course none of you have seen his driving...trust me, you don't want to. We sleep in the Costco parking lot right off the freeway for about two hours...remember the younger days when you didn't even need a pillow to get some sleep...will i ain't that young no more!!! Sleeping in the drivers seat with that back so full of crap you can't even recline the seat really does SUCK. But hey, it's an adventure...right??

Spent the night in Prince Rupert. It was sure nice to sleep in a hotel bed (don't hear that too often do ya). Went through US Customs the next morning...took about ohh...three minutes... REALLY. Not in Canada any more Toto. Then about an eight hour ferry ride to Ketchikn, Alaska. Checked into our room and went and got drunk. Yep, that's right, got drunk. And at that same place i was at in August when a few friends and I got stuck in Ketchikan because some damn mountain blow up and spewed ash all over the place. I don't know, it just seem fitting to go there and bring back some of the old memories of the Gray Goose Apple Martinis and pool. No more food guys...they caught the "chefs" helping themselves to a bit more than a few hot wings at break time. We had pizza delivered to our bar stools. By the time it showed up it was some of the best damn pizza i ever did eat.

The next day we caught the Inter Island Ferry to Hollis then an 1 1/2 hour to Coffman Cove. Let me tell ya all...it has really sucked being stuck here on this remote island and have to get up at ohh...I don't know...about 9am and pound nails tell about noon. Then we have to go empty the crab from the crab pots and rebait them. Come home and wait for low tide so we can go get our steamer clams. Climb back up to the house clean and boil the crab...then we have to eat them....Imagine having to eat all that crab with warm melted butter (feel me Robbie). Can't eat the clams yet though...have to put them in water with corn meal for a day or so. It's really kinda annoying because by the third day you got way too many clams. So what do ya do? Steamer party. Then theres that crapy trout fishing....

My $.02 trades for the week

The GBPUSD Gartley failed but did complete a 1.618 butterfly. One of our followers picked up a cool 200+ pips on this move from off the 60 minute chart. Not my preferred time frame to trade form but hey...what ever works. Great job. Long term trend is still to the downside and short term is up. My preference for the week is long to 1.5200 and 1.5700.

EURUSD preference is long to 1.3730 and 1.4400. A break of 1.2800 should open up a move to around 1.2500. Long term trend is still down.

I'm liking the EURJPY too. Short to 122.00.

GBPJPY, my favorite, has been trading very nicely between the upper and lower trend lines...higher highs and higher lows. MACD bias is to the upside and the MA's are still pointed up on the daily. The smaller time frames are showing some real nice patterns and price has been respecting the pivot levels very nicely. Fading between these pivot levels has been working quite well and offering up quite a few pips.

Remember, I am using the longer time frames to find the trends and patterns then trading off the shorter time frames. If you're going to trade from the daily and the 240 time frames I would suggest a few more then 20 pips stop losses.

GBPUSD possible Gartley

Something to watch for. Possible Gartley sell pattern. My bias is still to the down side and I do a have a target of 1.4553 (.886 fib) and 1.4515 (dbl bottom). Neither of these targets would invalidate the Gartely pattern. Alternatively, if the upside penetrates the 1.4565 level I will then watch for new long tragets of 1.4690 and 1.4730.

I'm sure it'll go either way, up or down.....:)

GBP patterns in a pattern

Bias here is still to the downside but a short term up trend has proven itself. Can anyone see the smaller patterns inside the bigger pattern. Drawing the supply and demand lines will show the range this has been trading. My orders have all been inside this range but waiting for a break out. Dial down for the entries and targets. Been finding some real good trades here.

In response to, well you know who you are. These lines do not show a Gartley pattern. The C point exceeding the A point invalidates the Gartley pattern. Likewise D cannot exceed X and B cannot exceed X. C however can equal A which first is a double top and D or B can equal X which would be a double or triple bottom. Did ya get that? There are however valid Gartley's in the smaller time frames that a couple of us have been trading. I just like to start with the Daily patterns and find the trend...just my way.

EUR Gartley pattern

I really like this set up. Long term bias is still to the down side. Go to shorter time frames for entries and targets. If short the CD move, might consider booking some profit and lowering the stop, I know I am. I bet it goes up or down.

Psychology of Trading - Daily Affirmation

Hi guys, here is something that was posted in an "Open FX" email that I just read and found very enlightening to me. You may have seen it, read at some point or may have it posted on your wall. If so, I think that's a good thing. If you haven't, well I hope you find this at least somewhat interesting

MASTER TRADER’S DAILY AFFIRMATION

I am a Master Trader.

I develop specific plans of action that meet my trading goals.

I exercise wisdom and patience in trading.

I wait for the right opportunity to present itself.

Every trade meets the required criteria.

I recognize trading opportunities quickly, clearly and with great ease.

I act decisively when executing my positions.

Emotion has no place in my game plan.

I recognize loss as a part of trading.

I adhere to sound money management principals that minimize loss and maximize gain.

I attract wealth and abundance, and this is reflected in my trades.

I trade with peace, confidence, and certainty.

I AM A MASTER TRADER.

Going into next week

Here are four that have my interest going into next week.

The EUR is setting up a nice Gartley and GBP is just so so. EUR Bias is still to the downside. My bias on the GBP is to the downside as well but looks to maybe trying to push up slightly. Notice the higher high.Right now it's trading in an area of support.

NZD cup and handle could break to the upside. Five bars back tested the .382 fib. Bias is still to the upside

GBPJPY still trending to the upside for the short term and approaching a .382 fib level. If you draw your own fib notice how the JPYGBP honored the .236 level before continuing up. Bias still to the upside.

The Secret to Making Money in Forex

The secret to making money in Forex depends on the management of your trades. A management system should be based on support and resistance, good risk:reward, keeping your losers tight, and allows for your winners to keep going or run. This is really the only way to make money in Forex or any market for that matter. But hay...that's just my opinion ya know.

When I wrote about booking profits and reducing risk on March 20th it was very much about managing your trade and not just managing risk. I really don't know or understand why this subject of managing trades seems to be so very misunderstood or not thought about at all. It's really interesting to me. Every trade I make both in and out of the market has a reason. Nothings arbitrary. There's a reason for it all.

I know exactly how much I can lose and am always thinking in terms of probabilities instead of certainties. I think too many traders enter positions without really knowing how much they can lose and instead are fixated on the profit their going to make. Knowing how much I can afford to lose is more important, in my opinion, than knowing how much I can profit. It is also a very important part of your trade management (the $ management part).

First you gotta learn a method of trading that suits your personality. Because of all the different personalities, I don't believe that any one method of trading is perfect for everyone. So once you've found what it is that works for you...study it, learn it, know it. But also know this, any good trading method will have periods of profits and periods of losses. Get that? Periods of losses!!

A trader must continue studying their trading method and learn to trade through these losing periods. It is usually at this point when the majority of traders will give up on that method complaining that it doesn't work and go searching for the method that has no losers, the holy grail. It is learning to manage these drawdown periods that will have the biggest and most profound positive impact on your trading.

Developing excellent money management skills combined with excellent trade management skills will ultimately be the heart and soul of the successful trader. If there is a holy grail of trading then this is it....excellent money management and excellent trade management skills!

There are many good books out there worth reading on the subject so go get one and learn. And remember the old saying: Never go for broke--You just might get it.

GBPUSD Gartley Buy Pattern update

To be a valid gartley pattern this will need to not exceed the "A" swing point. For me this is an area of caution. If you look at the 30 or 60 min charts you'll notice a nice cup and handle forming. Could be a continuation to the upside if it breaks the "A". If this happens I like the 1.4965ish $ level. This is a 1.272 fib and weekly pivot level.

Not expecting much action tonight with the NFP in the morning. I'll be closing my positions prior to the announcement.

GBPUSD Gartley buy pattern

Mexican carwash

Got a few pictures from my brother in Mexico and couldn't help but chuckle at a few. His truck needed a bath so off to the car wash he goes.

After the car wash they went to the market to get groceries for dinner. Just in time to catch the butcher delivering the markets beef order in his climate controlled delivery truck.

A Couple Possibilities

Couple patterns to watch for. These patterns all start with the AB=CD move so we don't have to wait for the move to complete to trade it. The chart with the yellow lines are potential targets for the EURUSD. My long term bias is still to the down side. The chart with the pattern in red is a possible sell pattern for the GBPUSD. Long and short term bias is to the down side with the GBPUSD

Also keeping an eye on the NZDUSD. Has a fairly nice pattern forming if you look at the 60min chart. Check out the Daily chart as well. Looks to be completing a sell pattern. My bias is still to the up side though.

This week has been a lot slower than I like. Not sure really why. Maybe the G20 and the NFP this week. Possibilities

Just say no to the Gimmicks

I was flipping through the channels late last night between trades an came across one of those infomercials about becoming a Forex trader (i actually thought all these guys were gone). I sat and listened for a while and really started getting irritated with what I was hearing. There were all these extremely successful traders giving their testimonials how Forex and this "Guru" saved their lives. These testimonials came from people that had never traded Forex before and most were your typical blue collar worker with a couple business professionals and one homeless dude (yep, you heard that right). All told how they were just not satisfied with what they had and wanted something more. Can't fault anyone for wanting to improve their life, right? Especially the homeless dude. The thing is none of these people had any trading experience and all were wildly successful from trading the Forex market. Specifically, trading this Guru's holy grail system. Just do what I say, he said, and you'll succeed.

I remember back in the late 90's it seemed like our TV's were controlled by these infomercials and stories of people like Joe the Plumber types making huge fortunes investing in Real Estate, Options, Stocks, Forex and other stuff. These were on so often that I sort of got use to them and would move on to the next channel if I didn't want to hear it. But this one sort of bugged me. Maybe because of how long I've been trading now and how much education and time I've put into this.

There was this farmer leaning up against a fence in what looked like a corn field. He was telling his story about investing in the Forex market using this Guru's holy grail system (no, they didn't really call it that...I did) and making more money in one month than he made all year plowing and farming his fields. Then there was this teacher that was able to walk away from her teaching job and now makes more money in a week then she did teaching. And on and on.

What bugged me wasn't that these people had begun trading and became successful, they should be congratulated for their successes. What bothered me was the advertised trading system. Just one phone call away from success. Call us now and give us your money and you'll be free. If you don't call us now I can't help you....What a bunch of crap...oops. It was all tauted as the easiest thing these people had ever done. The Farmer would get up in the morning and pour himself a cup of coffee and go to his computer and place his trades. He would come back later that day after finishing his chores and anything else he had planned for that day, then collect his profits. That easy.

If there is one thing I have learned about Forex trading is that it is not easy. Oh sure, I've said it in the past that people make it harder then it needs to be. But it still isn't easy. As traders we need to all ask ourselves some questions and give honest thought out answers. Do I fully understand the investment? Am I fully aware of the degree of risk? Does Forex fit my investment objectives? Am I honestly prepared to invest the necessary time, money, and energy that is required to make intelligent decisions about my trades?

If you can't or won't answer these questions honestly and intelligently, and you're not willing to invest the time, money, and energy in educating yourself about this market, well then, don't bother. Save your money or I, and the other traders that have and do invest in the time and education, will take it. I promise you that.

What these Guru's always seem to leave out is the real education involved and the losing trades that DO happen. You will not have 100% winning trades. You will have losing trades. It's a fact of trading. Successful traders know that losing money is going to happen and that keeping to your disciplined trading plan is essential to achieving success as a trader.

Tell me something, if all these Guru's selling these red and green arrows and automatic trading robots and fancy EA's really worked as well as they claim, why ain't they all multi-millionaires? Why is it that it's only the people we see on late night TV and the spammers telling us about the next great trading robot that seem to be making money with this crap. I know quite a few very successful traders but not a single one that even wants to admit ever trying this crap. And better yet, why is it none of these Guru's are ever willing to share their live trades. I don't know, I'm just saying. It seems a bit suspect to me. There are some things out there that I believe can give a trader a bit of an edge but nothing takes the place of the trader themself and the hard work that goes into the education of becoming a great trader. Mastering this market will never come from following arrows and using robots. It will only come from an investment in time and education.

These gimmick pushers know that people want a quick fix. The sad fact is most people are not willing to invest the time and money into educating themselves. They want it now. So a robot or just following some arrows sounds good. The gimmick pushers know this and it seems like a new gimmick or robot EA shows itself every week.

You gotta know that in this market you will have losing trades. It's a fact and part of trading. You have to know your tendencies. Does losing money keep you awake at night? Do you make trading or investing decisions quickly and based on the latest trend or tip from a forum or friend? Do you get emotional at the financial news? Answering yes may not be a bad thing but you might want to consider more conservative investments then the Forex market.

Even if you can stay calm and focused, being successful in the Forex market also requires active study and consistent attention to the market. Sorry, but this does mean educating yourself about Forex. There are some great sites on the web to get a person started and some even better ones you pay for. Be careful though, I have found there to be more crappy ones then good ones. A lot of them just want your money. There are some great books as well. But most of the stuff worth much will require you to spend a dollar or two.

The Forex market is an incredibly dynamic market with huge opportunities to make a lot of money and to grow as a person. It can also lead to huge losses in a very short period of time. The Forex market is a high risk investment suited only for those who can absorb the losses that come with the market. It's not a place to stash your retirement.

So, for those willing to expend the time, money and energy into the education and can understand the risk involved I say go for it and and have fun. But be cautious of all the so called guru's, gimmick pushers, and too good to be true testimonials bragging about the holy grail they have found to make millions trading. You'll be better off mixing a good grey goose martini, sparking a nice Cuban and kicking back in a lounge and watching the fish jump.

A couple trade ideas from a follower (updated)

ERUUSD
>1.3380 pivot
1t 1.355 r1
<1.3276>140.20 m4
1t 140.62 r3
2T 142.30 pivot

Update: Long never triggered. Short triggered, hit first target and beyond. Moving stop to >1.3180.

AUDUSD
>168.63 Gartley buy
Targets are the Fib levels

Update: Triggered and was good for about 50 pips. Stopped around .6900. A couple of us were together earlier and entered this one at the .786 fib level (around .6882), about 20 pips from a dbl bottom. Because we entered early we were not able to book as many pips. This was a bit more aggressive entry I think. It could have easily continued south and stopped us at the stop loss (the dbl bottom) and missed the up move all together.

In my mind this wasn't a real clear Gartley pattern. It does go to show how we all can see things a bit different and still get good results. The person that called this booked about 50 pips then noticed a pattern forming after his targett was hit. He then entered a short and is still in that trade and has booked over 100 pips on the second move. I'll show this move later when i get the time. It was a great call on his part.

EURJPY
>130.60
1t 131.00 pivot
<129.40

Update: Long never triggered. Short triggered, hit first target and beyond. If your watching the S$R levels the next target was 126.70. Moved stop to >127.40. Trade stopped.

Remember to book profit and reduce risk along the way.

Tonights Libation

First off, this requires a real martini glass. Not one of those small kids sippy cup size light weight restaurant lounge type martini glasses. A REAL martini glass.
5oz grey goose vodka
3oz Xrated infused vodka
Three to four ice cubes
Shaken, but not so much as to bruise the good stuff.
Then, before pouring into glass, a splash of 7-up.
Pour into a REAL martini glass and....well you know.

Caution: i would not advise trading during this moment of bliss. These things will kick your ass! Really!!

Update to 3/25/09

GBPUSD
triggered long and stopped, -24. Re-entered and triggered then stopped, another loss....-25.If awake could have re-entered and could have got 20 or so back. Sucks when this happens. How many times do you re-enter your trade? Hmmm...good question.
Short triggered and booked some profit at 1.4485, moved stop to just above break even.

EURJPY
Triggered short and hit 1t and beyond, booked +40. Moved stop to above pivot and stopped. Booked another +25.
Triggered long and stopped for -25. Re-entered and triggered. Hit 1t and beyond, booking +60. Moving stop

GBPJPY
Triggered long and booked profit then stopped just below break even. Re-entered and triggered, hit 1t booking profit along the way. Stop is just below break even. If and when price reaches r1 then will adjust stop above pivot.
Short never triggered but still looking to scalp between 141.40 (m2) and 140.95 (dbl btm). Will watch to drop below the 140.95 to s1. Below s1 looks good to.

GBPCHF
Triggered long and stopped for -28
Short never triggered.
Orders are cancelled

My trade ideas 3/25/2009

GBPUSD
>1.4600 pivot and Fib
1t 1.4640 m3, approaching .618
2t 1.4683 m4, .786
<1.4515 Dbl bottom
1t 1.4465 s1, 1.4453=1.272 fib
2t 1.4423 m2

EURJPY
< 132.30 fib and support
1t 132.00 daily pivot and .236
2t 131.60 Gartley buy pattern, .618
>132.90 Dbl top
1t 133.30 r1

GBPJPY
>142.50 pivot
1t 143.26 m3
<141.63 fob
1t 140.95 dbl bottom

GBPCHF
>1.6389 pivot
1t 1.6445 fib
<1.6220 Dbl bottom
1t 1.6145 fib

Trade update

GBPCHF triggered short and took 22 then stopped for -20. Re-entered and triggered about 45 minutes later. Profit at +21, +58, and +108. Moved stop to >1.6480 Still trading.
Long never triggered.

GBPUSD triggered short. Profit at +26, +52, and +77. Moved stop to 1.4618 and got stopped.
Long trigger just missed.

EURUSD triggered short and stopped for -22. Re-entered.
Triggered long and hit first target for +42. Moved stop to >1.3525 and stopped right away.

GBPJPY Triggered short and took +42 and +68. Moved stop to >143.10. still trading.
Long never triggered.

Where did the big and fast move against the dollar come from? Was it the unexpected 4.7% increase in new home sales or do you suppose it may have had something to do with Treasury Secretary Timmy Geithner moving his lips. I may just have to start closing my orders when anyone from Washington speaks. Just take a look at what the dollar pairs did when this guy started speaking. Sounds like due to the Special Drawing Right linked currency system proposed by the Chinese that Timmy says the US is open to. Don't the Chinese own the US by now?

Trade ideas for 3/24/2009

GBPCHF
>1.6664
1t 1.6480
<1.6540>144.75 Continuation of CD
1t 145.45

GBPUSD - Still in a continuation of a Gartley buy pattern. Broke down trend line around 1.4400 and presently at .786 fib and a weekly pivot
<1.4640>1.4728
1t 1.4788

EURUSD - Challenging the lower side of the flag.
<1.3430>1.3525
1t 1.3575

NZDUSD using caution here but still like the long set up.
>.5715
1t .5800

There are a few other pretty good set ups but these are the main ones for me right now.

Booking Profit and Reducing Risk

Someone I trade with asked me this question today. "Why are you risking 20 to 30 pips to get 20 to 30 pips?" To some of you who step in here from time to time this may be a familiar question since it was just asked and answered a few weeks ago by someone else, somewhere else, who I and others have learned a great deal from. And, I seem to get asked this question a lot. So it made me laugh a bit and I thought I would post my answer here.

Not to take anything away from the question, because it is a good one if you're new to trading, but this question really does bug me because I think the bigger picture is being missed which is what we're really trading for - the Bigger Moves. If you're not trading for the big moves then you should be!

So, first of all, I'm never trying to get just 20 to 30 pips. I use to, but no longer. Believe me, it took some time for me to figure this out. You can have all the calculators and spread sheets in the world that show how you can be a gazillionaire with only 10 to 20 pips a trade.....but...it's all bullshit! What these calculators and spread sheets never tell you is you WILL have losers and maybe even a lot of them. With ALL my trades, even scalp trades, I'm looking to profit several hundred pips. It doesn't mean I will get that every trade. But by taking the first 20 to 40 pips along the way and moving my stops I'm reducing my risk and building a cushion. I'm not really making my money on the cushion I'm creating but rather on the 35% of the trades that make the big moves. These are the moves I'm counting on.

Everyday I'm looking at what pairs have the highest probability to make the biggest moves based on patterns, support & resistance (pivots) and Fibonacci levels. I'm also verifying my observations with MACD and Stochastic but mostly patterns. Especially the AB=CD, Gartley and Butterfly patterns. As these patterns are forming I trade the AB=CD moves which make up these patterns. All the while watching for the bigger moves. Almost all the people I trade with never hold their trades for the big moves and the big profits (you know who you are). I believe, you must if you're going to stay and make it in this market. Just my opinion :)

I know that I will have losers, I know this, it's just a fact of trading and I prepare every trade for it with good management and keeping my loses tight. I look at how much I can lose before I enter any order or trade. Most traders look at how much they can make and forget about how much they can lose until they have lost it. Then it's too late. I'll have trades that have small profits, maybe even most of the trades have small profits. That's ok and the losers are ok too. It's the big moves I'm watching and preparing for.

Now, all that being said, if you're risking more or the same as what you're looking to make, you will not be successful at trading. You must have a trading strategy that uses good risk/reward if you are going to be successful at this game. My basic strategy is to look for and find the highest probability set-ups using patterns and support & resistance with tight risk, usually between 15 to 30 pips. As my trade moves into profit I'm booking pips and moving stops.....Booking Profit and Reducing Risk. I almost always let my final piece of the trade get stopped out. I know that by creating a cushion and moving my stop using S&R levels as the trade progresses, I have done all I could to take advantage of the big moves when they do come. I have done my job.

The traders who are successful over time all have, and stick to a strategy that uses good risk/reward. Everyone else will either lose their money very quickly (and blame everyone else or the market) or they will be successful for a short period of time then get bit in the ass (and blame everyone else or the market) (then get divorced...hmmm).

So you see (I hope), I'm not really risking 20-30 to make 20-30. But rather risking 20-30 to make several hundred and reducing that risk along the way. It's what works for me, and others a whole lot more successful than I at this trading thing.

Good luck. Hope that helps and answers the question.

Here's the results

AUDUSD < never triggered.
> triggered took +20 moved stop. Stopped at +7.

USDJPY < triggered and stopped. Lost -11. Re-entered.
> triggered took +20 then +40. Moved stop to 95.80. Still going.

GBPUSD < triggered and stopped. Lost -20. Re-entered. Triggered 2nd time took +40 and moved stop. Stopped +5
> triggered and took +30, moved stop. Stopped +20

EURUSD < triggered and stopped -20. Triggered 2nd time took +30 moved stop. Took 70 moved stop. Stopped +20
> triggered and stopped -20

Net +100. USDJPY still going

Early action for tonight

A few of my trades for tonight. Some patterns are forming. When I get more time i will post the patterns that I'm watching.

AUDUSD <.6838 pivot
1t .6786 Sup level and Fib

>.6900 Res level
1t .6940 dbl top
2t .6954 Res level
If Aussie moves up this would be the CD move. Abviously if the moveis down then BC has not completed. $ is at the .50 level.

USDJPY <94.30 Sup
1t 94.00 sup

>94.90 fib and pivot
1t 95.30 fib and R level

GBPUSD <1.4468 fib level
1t 1.4419 pivot
2t 1.4331 S level and fib
I see this is a BC move
>1.4530 fib level
1t 1.4560 R level
2t 1.4600 dbl top
This would be the CD

EURUSD > 1.3700 R level
1t 1.3795 R level and fib extension

<1.3640 Fib
1t 1.3610 fib

Hate to be me this morning.

Short below a pivot level 138.13 triggered my order by 2 pips. The next bull candle stops the order then continues to the downside and I miss a nice 40+ pips move. What really sucks about this is I had walked away just ten minutes earlier to finish watching a movie on the boob tube.

To me what really sucks for this night is I completely missed the move in the GBPUSD. If you haven't looked, check it out. It was good for more than 100 pips. Oh well, I still ended a few pips positive even after paying the spreads and commissions.

USDCAD and the EURUSD both made a nice move this morning between two key levels. It looks like Jon and Kim caught these. Good job guys. What way to stick to your plan. Hope everyone else is catching some of these moves too.

Scalping GBPJPY

Here's an update to the GBPJPY I'm trading tonight. I said before that I'll be fading these different levels to and not really counting on the big moves when there isn't much volume in the market. So to illustrate, here are the trades I've been active in since the last post.

<138.84 138.99 stopped. 15 pips lose

<138.84 1st profit 138.60 +24 (no need to close this trade due to the strong pull to the downside)
2nd profit level 138.13 or just above that. 138.18 stopped (more then +60 pips) and went long to fade back to pivot again

>138.18
1st profit 138.50
138.49 stopped (+30pips)

< 138.49
1st target 138.18
138.20 stopped (+25 pips)
and so on

I realize its not the best or most productive way to trade but when the markets are narrow like this and before the London session opens (and I'm really bored), I find that I can usually pick up a few pips. I certainly get my share of losers this way but if you're managing the trade properly and closely a person can do alright and you can keep your losers pretty small (5 to 10 pips, 15 max). Of course you have to be willing to watch the charts and monitor what is happening. And that is not always what a trader wants to do...sit and stare at the charts. Unless that is, you have no life.

One more note: I wouldn't recommend doing this type of trading with a fixed spread or deal desk broker. Not only is the spread way too much for me to want to tolerate but many deal desks, that I know of, really frown on scalping. And there are other reasons that I won't go into right now. The biggest spread I've had so far with this pair is 5 pips. Not uncommon to have a 3 pip spread or less. This also works especially well for me on the EURUSD at a 1 pip spread, GBPUSD at a 3 pip spread, and USDJPY at less than 1 pip spread.

Like watching paint dry sometimes

Weeks like this are pretty boring trading to me. Not a lot of movements. Everyone waiting for the news this week. Wednesday CPI and FOMC and Thursday Unemployment so ranges pretty tight. It'll be small orders for me this week with most of my concentration on scalping the GBPJPY. Maybe one will turn into a good move, never know.

NZDUSD update: Notice the chart posted. Missed main target by exactly 5 pips. Had an exit at 1.2522 to close half my order for a small profit. Moved stop as usual to break even and got stopped out about 30 minutes later. This pair has stayed inside about a 45 pip range in the last 24 hours. For my style of trading, it's kind of tough trading for me. During these range bound times I need to stick with something like the GBPJPY, EURJPY or even the GBPCHF.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY 240min chart.
Not the cleanest Gartley buy pattern I've seen but it works. Double top at A and C and divergence in stochastic.

NZDUSD

I like NZDUSD to .5330 (786 Fib). This could be a BC move from where I sit.

Not expecting much this week with the news coming out this week. I expect things to be a bit slow so my sizes will be considerably smaller.